20 Disruptions, 20 Lessons
Ten general-purpose technologies and eleven occupation-level disruptions. Each case study follows the same arc: prediction, reality, mechanism, and what it means for AI.
1. Macro Disruptions Ten general-purpose technologies that reshaped the labour market
Each GPT follows a 4-phase arc: market entry → mass adoption → productivity gains → full restructuring. The arc is compressing over time.
2. Micro Disruptions Eleven occupations, eleven different outcomes from the same forces
Each case study includes a disruption Type badge linking to the taxonomy on the overview page. Frey & Osborne (2013) estimated 47% of US jobs are susceptible to automation in principle; the OECD estimated 14% fully replaceable. The difference is methodological — but both agree: the inverse relationship between income/education and exposure is the dominant pattern. ISCO codes link to the AI Exposure Map.
3. Timescale Comparison How long disruption actually takes
Sorted by total span. The fastest completed disruption took 15 years; the slowest, over 90. Median: 30–40 years.